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The US said it has reached agreements with Ukraine and Russia for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, following talks with both parties in Saudi Arabia.
The White House said on Tuesday that Kyiv and Moscow had agreed “to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea”.
But it remained unclear when the deal would be implemented. The agreement also falls well short of the Trump administration’s proposed 30-day ceasefire, which would have included the 1,000km frontline — a proposal that was supported by Kyiv but rejected by Moscow.
While Kyiv said it would comply immediately, Moscow said it would first need to secure the lifting of sanctions imposed on Russian banks involved in the production and trade of agricultural goods. The Kremlin is also seeking to readmit those banks to the Swift messaging system, a move that would require EU approval.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv would hold up its end of the deal, even as he remained sceptical about Russia’s intentions.
“There’s no faith in the Russians,” he said. “But I believe we will act constructively and do our part to implement the outcomes of the US-Ukraine meeting.”
Speaking to reporters in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said the US side had told his delegation that the Black Sea ceasefire — as well as a previous pledge by Russian President Vladimir Putin to pause attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days — would be effective immediately.
“We first agreed that there could be silence at sea and free navigation,” Zelenskyy said. “The second point is to stop attacks on the energy system.”
A senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that Kyiv would immediately halt “deep strikes” on Russian military targets under the deal, including Black Sea and energy targets. Ukraine has used domestically-developed drones to strike oil refineries deep into Russian territory.
The senior official said that timing had not been agreed. He added that “not only ships” but Ukrainian ports were included in the maritime ceasefire. Odesa and other Black Sea ports have continued to be struck by Russian missiles and drones in recent days.
The Kremlin’s conditions in Saudi Arabia largely echoed demands it made to extend a Black Sea maritime security deal struck in 2022. The US and EU introduced carve-outs and back-door arrangements to facilitate payments, but Russia complained the measures were insufficient and, in July 2023, pulled out of the agreement.
But Russia’s demand to lift restrictions on lenders, if successful, would mark a significant rollback in the western sanctions regime that the US and EU had previously been reluctant to make.
Russian fertiliser exports hit a record 40mn tonnes last year and are expected to increase by up to 5 per cent in 2025, according to the industry’s main trade association.
The increase shows how Russia succeeded in finding alternative export routes, indicating that the Kremlin was currently more interested in creating holes in the western sanctions regime, rather than boosting exports, said Elina Ribakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
“There is little substance on the trade. It’s a small share of Russia’s exports. Russia is writing a sequel to The Art of the Deal,” referring to US President Donald Trump’s 1987 book.
Cartography by Steven Bernard
